中国高技术产业的全要素生产率增长率分解——兼对“结构红利假说”再检验

Decomposition of Total Factor Productivity Growth Rate in China's High-tech Industries——A Test for ‘The Structural Bonus Hypothesis’

传统索洛余值法关于全要素生产率(TFP)的测算未剥离R&D资本体现型技术进步。为了克服由此产生的高估"真实"TFP增长率和低估要素配置结构效应问题,本文以SNA2008和CSNA2016中R&D资本化核算改革为契机,基于资本服务理论和引入R&D资本的扩展CD生产函数,测算R&D资本并解决重复计算问题,重构基于增加值生产可能性前沿函数的TFP增长率分解框架,据以探究中国高技术产业的TFP增长内在动力,并对要素配置的"结构红利假说"进行再检验。研究发现:总体上,技术效应是高技术产业TFP增长的主导来源,但要素配置的"结构红利"也发挥了重要作用;趋势上,高技术产业TFP增长的技术效应呈上升趋势,而要素配置结构效应呈下降趋势,尤其是2012年以后的经济新常态阶段结构效应表现为"结构负利";从要素角度看,R&D资本配置的结构红利在逐期上升但份量较小,劳动配置结构效应起主导作用;从行业角度看,电子及通信设备制造业是技术效应的主要影响行业,而计算机及办公设备制造业是要素配置结构效应的主要影响行业。本文的研究结论,为推进中国高技术产业高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革的路径选择提供了有价值的政策参考。

To overcome the problem of overestimating total factor productivity(TFP)growth rate and underestimating the structural effects of factor allocation based on the traditional Solow model due to the absence of R&D capitalization,according to SNA2008 and CSNA2016 with the capitalization of R&D,based on the capital service theory and R&D-based Cobb-Douglas production function,taking into account of the relative prices of different industries,the paper restructured TFP growth framework and decomposed the TFP growth not contained R&D-capital-embodies technical progress in China’s high-tech industries,using the value-added based production possibility frontier to examine the“structural bonus hypothesis”.We found that:①On the whole,the“structural bonus”of factor allocation could not be ignored,in spite of the technical effect played a leading role in the TFP growth.②From the point of development trend,the technical effect had been rising as the“structural bonus”of factor allocation had been declining,until the stage of economic new normal after 2012 with“structural negative”.③In terms of factor inputs,the“structural bonus”of R&D capital allocation became more and more significant but a small share,compared with the labor input played a key role in the structural effects.④In the view of sub-industries,the manufacturing of electronic and telecommunication equipment manufacturing made significant contribution to the technical effect,while manufacture of computers and office equipment affected the structural effects of factor allocation significantly.In a word,the conclusion of this paper provided useful policy reference on promoting high-quality development of China’s high-tech industries and the path of supply-side structural reform.