市场导向、生产经营风险与果农种植品种决策——基于江苏省桃种植户的实证分析

Market orientation,risks in production and operation and farmer's decision-making of variety selection:Based on the empirical analysis of peach growing famers in Jiangsu province

基于2016年江苏省固定观察点204户桃种植户调研数据,采用结构方程模型实证分析了市场导向和生产经营风险对农户种植品种决策的影响。结果表明:市场导向会显著影响农户的品种选择,提高农户对市场导向的认知,可以避免错误决策,有效降低农业生产和经营风险;同时,农户在品种决策中对生产、经营风险的敏感程度要远高于市场导向;此外,生产风险和经营风险对农户种植品种决策的影响是相反的,生产风险会促使农户采用新的品种和技术,经营风险带来的收益不确定会阻碍农户采用新的品种和技术。

Based on the survey data of 204 peach growers at fixed observation points in Jiangsu province in 2016, the effect of market orientation and production and management risk on peach growers' decision-making was empirically analyzed by using structural equation model. The results show that market orientation can significantly affect farmers' choice of varieties, improve farmers' awareness of market orientation, avoid wrong decision-making and effectively reduce the risks of agricultural production and operation;at the same time, farmers' sensitivity to production and operation risks in variety decision-making is much higher than market orientation;furthermore, the impact of production risk and operation risk on farmers' decision-making of planting varieties is opposite, production risk will encourage farmers to adopt new varieties and technologies, while the uncertain returns from operating risks will prevent farmers from adopting new varieties and technologies.