最优关税与全球贸易自由化的内生动力

Optimal Tariffs and the Endogenous Motivation for Global Trade Liberalization

本文通过模拟不同模型结构对内生最优关税的影响,解释和分析了全球贸易自由化的内在动力。我们使用数值一般均衡的参数校准和模拟方法计算了各国有贸易报复和无贸易报复的最优关税,在标准一般均衡模型结构中逐步引入资本跨国流动、多国假定、贸易成本、贸易不平衡以及产品同质化等假定,模拟出不断下降的最优关税率。模拟结果表明,随着世界经济的发展,不同经济体相互之间的经济联系和依赖性增强,贸易自由化是一个内生的优化选择;近年出现的少数国家"逆全球化"倾向具有一定的背景和动因,但违背经济增长规律和整体经济社会的发展,是不可持续的短期现象。

This paper explains and analyses the internal mechanism of world trade liberalisation based on the simulation of the different model structures'effects on optimal endogenous tariffs.Using the calibration and simulation methods of the numerical general equilibrium parameters to calculate the optimal tariffs of each country with and without commercial reprisals,and gradually introducing realistic assumptions to the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the introduction of cross-border capital flows,multi-country hypothesis,trade costs,trade imbalances and product homogenisation,etc.,we can simulate a gradual decline in optimal tariffs.The simulation results prove that,with the development of the world economy,economic relations have been strengthened and dependence between different economies has been increasing,turning trade liberalisation into an optimal endogenous option.In recent years,the trend towards“anti-globalisation”in certain countries presents a particular background and motivation,but it also violates the law of economic growth and the development of the entire economy and society,leading to a clear short-term unsustainable phenomenon.