基于多元线性回归的机场空气质量影响因素研究

Research on Influence Factors of Airport Air Quality Based on Multiple Linear Regression

随着民航业的飞速发展,带动机场范围内交通流量剧增,使机场空气质量逐渐恶化,对乘客及附近居民健康和生态环境构成直接影响。因此,准确评估机场空气质量并提取主要影响因素亟不可待。文章通过确定机场范围,计算机场污染源小时排放清单,采用AERMOD模型计算污染物扩散浓度,通过机场空气质量评估模型将其转化为AAQI,得到机场空气质量评估结果。以此为基础,采用相关分析法提取机场空气质量主要影响因素,利用多元线性回归法对主要影响因素与AAQI建立回归模型。最后以南京禄口国际机场为例,基于2016年机场空气质量评估结果,提取了机场空气质量的主要影响因素,包括航空器小时架次、风速、温度和风向,并建立了回归模型,经验证,回归模型的拟合优度高达95%。

With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry,the traffic in the airport has increased dramatically,which has caused the airport air quality to deteriorate,posing a direct threat and impact on the health of passengers and nearby residents and ecological environment.Therefore,an accurate assessment of the airport air quality and extraction of the main influencing factors are not to be waited.The airport’s scope was determined to calculate the hourly emission inventory of airport-related pollution sources.The AERMOD model was used to calculate the atmospheric diffusion concentration of pollutants,and the airport air quality assessment model was used to convert the concentration into AAQI.Finally,the results of dirport air quality were obtuned.The correlation analysis method was used to extract the influencing factors of airport air quality based on the above assessment results,and then the multivariate linear regression method was used to establish the regression model for the extracted influencing factors and AAQI.Finally,the main influencing factors of airport air quality in Nanjing Lukou International Airport were extracted based on the airport air quality assessment results in 2016,including aircraft hourly sorties,wind speed,temperature and wind direction,and a regression model was established.Through validation,the goodness of fit of the regression model is as high as 95%.