我国财政农业投入对农业产出的影响分析——基于省际面板数据的分位数回归

Analysis on the Impact of Financial Agricultural Input on Agricultural Output in China——Regression of quantiles based on provincial panel data

基于我国31个省市自治区2007-2016年的面板数据,选择国家农、林、牧和渔业财政支出作为财政农业投入,农、林、牧和渔业总产值作为农业产出,运用面板数据的分位数回归方法就财政农业投入对农业产出的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,我国财政农业投入对农业产出的增长具有显著正向作用;我国农业产出水平的条件分布特征在东部、中部和西部均有所不同,在各分位点水平上,西部区域的回归系数明显较大;从全国来看,分位点越高,财政农业投入对农业产出的影响越小。根据我国财政农业投入对农业产出的影响大小,对不同农业产出水平地区的财政农业投入进行合理分配,使得国家财政资源得到更有效的利用。

Based on panel data of 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China in 2007-2016,this paper selects national agricultural,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishery fiscal expenditures as financial agricultural inputs,and agricultural,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishery output as agricultural output,and the quantile regression method of panel data was used to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural investment on agricultural output. The research results show that China’s agricultural investment has a significant positive effect on the growth of agricultural output;and that the conditional distribution characteristics of China’s agricultural output level are different in the eastern,central and western regions,and at the level of each locator,the regression coefficient of the western region is obviously larger.From a national point of view,the higher the number of sub-sites is,the smaller the impact of agricultural investment on agricultural output is. According to the impact of China’s agricultural investment on agricultural output,the agricultural investment in different agricultural output levels can be reasonably distributed,making more effective use of agricultural investment.