气候变化视角下我国粮食生产率增长及其影响因素分析

China's grain productivity growth and its influencing factors under the climate change perspective

【目的】通过深入了解气候变化对粮食生产率增长的影响,为科学制定粮食生产政策提供理论依据。【方法】利用2000—2017年我国省际面板数据,使用HP滤波法分离粮食生产气候产量,并运用序列DEA方法测算是否考虑气候因素两种条件下的我国粮食全要素生产率,并实证检验气候变化、科技投入等因素对粮食生产率的影响。【结果】气候变化对粮食全要素生产率的测算结果具有较大影响,考虑气候变化因素后粮食全要素生产率更低。两种条件下我国粮食全要素生产率的增长均呈明显波动性变化,主要由技术进步推动,而技术效率起到阻碍作用。气候变化对粮食全要素生产率有显著影响,且具有明显的区域差异性,其中年平均气温具有正向影响,而年降水总量则表现出负向影响;科技投入对粮食全要素生产率增长的促进作用显著。【建议】政府应调整农业结构和种植制度,推动农业供给侧结构性改革;加大农业科技投入,培育新品种;完善农田基本设施建设,提高水资源利用率;建立和完善农业气象灾害监测预警服务体系,提高农业灾害性天气的预测能力。

【Objective】The impact of climate change on grain productivity growth was studied in order to provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of scientific grain production policies.【Method】Using the China inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017,sequence DEA method was used to calculate whether to consider the climatic factors of the grain total factor productivity based on using HP filtering separation grain yield climate production,and the influence mechanism of climate change,technology investment and other factors on grain productivity was empirically tested.【Result】Climate change had great impact on the measurement of grain total factor productivity.After considering the factors of climate change,the grain total factor productivity was lower.Under the two conditions,the growth of total grain productivity showed obvious volatility,which was mainly driven by technological progress,while technical efficiency was hindering the effect.The climate changes had significant effects on the grain total factor productivity,and had clear regional differences.The annual average temperature had positive impact,while the annual total precipitation showed negative effect.The contribution of technology investment to the growth of grain total factor productivity was very significant.【Suggestion】The government should adjust the agricultural structure and planting system,promote the reform of agricultural supply side;increase the investment of agricultural science and technology,cultivate new varieties;improve the construction of farmland infrastructure,improve the utilization rate of water resources;establish and improve the early warning service system of agro meteorological disaster monitoring,and improve the prediction ability of agricultural disastrous weather.