流动人口生育年龄对其子女随迁机会的影响

The Impact of Maternal Age on Probability of Offspring Migrating Together

劳动年龄人口大规模流动,其子女的去向一直是学界关心的问题。已有研究证明相对于留守儿童,流动儿童身心发展较为健康。包括子女性别、年龄、流动人口自身职业、收入等在内的多种因素影响流动人口子女随迁的机会,但鲜见关于生育年龄对子女随迁机会影响作用的探讨。本文利用2014年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据,以目前只生育了一个子女且子女年龄在3-14岁的流动妇女为研究对象,分析生育年龄对其子女随迁机会的影响作用。结果发现:在控制了社会人口学变量、流动特征及流入地政策环境等变量后,生育年龄仍可正向预测其子女的随迁机会,越晚生育子女随迁机会越大;与生育年龄相关的社会经济状况可提高流动人口子女随迁机会,但无法替代生育年龄对子女随迁机会的预测作用,晚育对流动人口子女随迁机会的促进作用可能同时得益于年龄增长所带来的心智成熟;流动人口的生育年龄、子女年龄与实际年龄之间存在密切关联,但流动人口的生育年龄比实际年龄更为单纯,对子女的随迁可能性有更大预测作用,该结论可推广至其他有关流动人口子女的研究中,使用流动人口的生育年龄而非实际年龄作为自变量将有助于区分父母特征和子女特征对流动人口子女相关因变量的影响作用。

The migration of working age population is a major process of demographic change of China. Being left-behind of migrant are two choices of the children of migrant population. Previous literatures show that the physical and mental health of the children who move to urban areas to live with their migrant parents are better than that of those left-behind. Various variables(so as the ages and genders of children per se,the education of migrant individual,and the policies of the destination cities)can predict the probability of offspring migrating,but the impact of maternal age is lack of discussion. Basing on China National Monitoring Survey of Migrant Population 2014,female migrant participants who have only one child aged 3-14 years were selected as the research sample. The impact of maternal age on probability of offspring migrating with mother was explored. Findings showed:(1)Maternal age can significantly predict the probability of offspring migrating,the later the higher.(2)Better social economic status can improve the probability of off? spring migrating,but could not replace the effect of maternal age. The Promotion of probability of offspring migrating by later maternal age might attribute to individual maturity.(3)When the issues about offspring of migrant population were discussed,the maternal age is purer than age. Using the maternal ages instead of ages of migrant individuals can distinguish the influence of children’s characteristics and the parents’characteristics on key dependent variables of children of migrant population.