中国人口老龄化对劳动生产率的影响分析——基于非线性方法的实证研究

Analysis of the Impact of Population Aging on Labor Productivity in China——An Empirical Study Based on Non-linear Methods

提高劳动生产率是经济发展实现高质量转变的关键因素。当前我国社会全面进入老龄化阶段,人口老龄化程度的加深对劳动生产率的影响日益引起社会各界广泛关注。围绕两者关系进行深入分析不仅有助于我们深入理解人口老龄化的经济效应,同时对于我们更好应对人口老龄化问题将具有重要指导作用。本文采用非线性方法就我国人口老龄化对劳动生产率的影响进行深入研究,通过对1990-2012年31个省份的面板数据进行实证分析后发现:由于我国处于老龄化社会的初期阶段,人口老龄化程度的加深对劳动生产率的增长具有明显提升作用,但从门槛模型结果来看,在老龄化程度较高的地区,人口老龄化对劳动生产率的提升作用已开始有所减弱,这种"增长渐进式衰减"应引起社会各界的高度重视。当前政府应抓住老龄化社会初期的发展机遇,加快建成产学研人才培养体系,为日后有效促进劳动生产率的快速提升提供充足的人才储备基础;同时社会各界应积极应对未来高度老龄化社会对劳动生产率的负面冲击,通过交流合作等方式进一步为开发老年人口红利寻找机遇。

Improving labor productivity is the key factor to achieve high quality transformation in development. As China has entered the aging stage,the impact of aging will be more and more obvious. A thorough study of the relationship between aging and labor productive will not only help us to understand the economic effects of population aging deeply,but also play an important role in dealing with the problem of population aging. Based on the empirical analysis,this paper makes a research of the impact of population aging on labor productivity in China by means of non-linear method. Through the empirical study of panel data of 31 provinces from 1990 to 2012,the results show that:Due to the initial state,Chinese aging has significantly positive effect on labor productive,however,threshold study indicate that this positive effect have been weaken in the areas with high degree of aging,this phenomenon of“progressive decline”should arouse a high degree of great concern. As for the current social situation,on the one hand,government should seize the opportunities for the early development of an aging society,speeding up the construction of a talent training system for industry,university and research,and provide a sufficient think tank foundation for the effective promotion of labor productivity in future. At the same time,all of the society should actively respond to the negative impact of the future highly aging society on labor productivity,and further seek opportunities for the development of the elderly population dividend through exchanges and cooperation. Based on the above conclusion,this paper not only responds appropriately to the differences in academic,but also has important significance in actively dealing with the problem of population aging and speeding up the development of aging business and industries.