本地制度环境对出口结构优化的非线性影响——兼论国际贸易新规则下贸易强国建设

The Non-linear Impact of Local Institutional Environment on Export Structure Optimization——On the Construction of Trade Power under the New Rules of International Trade

本文利用1998～2016年中国省级面板数据,采用资本技术密集型行业出口比重来衡量地区出口结构,从门槛效应视角考察金融制度环境和公共制度环境对地区出口结构优化的非线性影响。研究结果表明,本地制度环境对出口结构优化的影响在上述两类制度环境层面均存在显著的门槛效应。只有跨越一定的门槛水平后,金融规模的扩大、金融效率的提升和知识产权保护强度的增加才对地区出口结构优化产生显著的正向影响,而基础设施建设的加强则始终有助于地区出口结构优化。基于此,本文兼论国际贸易新规则下贸易强国建设的可行路径。在"逆全球化"的背景下,本地制度环境建设是推动贸易强国建设和地区出口结构优化的内在动力源泉。

Using the provincial-level panel data from 1998 to 2016 and measuring the export structure by the ratio of capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry export in total export, this paper investigates the non-linear impact of the financial institution environment and the public institution environment on export structure optimization from the perspective of threshold effect. The research shows that there are significant threshold effects in the impact of the above two institutional environments on the optimization of export structure. Only after crossing the threshold value, could the expansion of financial scale, the improvement of financial efficiency and the enhancement of intellectual property protection intensity have a significant positive impact on export structure optimization. And the strengthening of infrastructure construction would help to continuously improve the regional export structure. Based on this, this paper discusses the feasible paths for the construction of trade power under the new rules of international trade. The enlightenment of this paper is that under the background of “reverse globalization”, the construction of local institutional environment can be the internal power source for promoting the construction of trade power and the optimization of regional export structure.