玉林市气候与主要气象灾害演变趋势分析

Analysis on the evolvement trend of climate and main meteorological disasters in Yulin City

【目的】探讨全球气候变暖的背景下玉林市气候演变趋势,为当地农业生产提供参考依据。【方法】采用玉林市气象站1954年以来的气温、降水和日照等气象资料,分析各个时期各要素的平均值的变化及年际发展趋势。【结果】玉林市气温从上世纪90年代后变暖显著,但是未来继续上升的迹象不明显,降水量年际变化不大,未受气候变暖的影响,进入本世纪后日照已经停止了继续减少的趋势。通过对上世纪60年代以来的主要农业气象灾害统计分析,结果表明:暴雨年代差异不大,分布较为均匀;寒露风和霜冻随着年平均气温的升高后呈明显减少的趋势,而在气温转暖较为急剧的上世纪90年代,容易发生较重级别的农业气象灾害。【结论】目前来看,玉林市未来气温没有继续变暖的迹象。与气温变暖相对应的是,寒露风与霜冻年代发生次数的明显递减,霜冻更显著。而降水并未受气温的年际变化所影响,暴雨年代差异不大,分布较为均匀。推测往后几年玉林市日照量在低值区内有波动上升的趋势。

【Objective】This paper discusses the trend of climate evolution in Yulin City under the background of global warming and provides reference for local agricultural production.【Method】Adopts the yulin city meteorological station since 1954,such as temperature,precipitation and sunshine meteorological data,analyzing the change of the mean value of each factor in different historical periods and the development trend of annual.【Result】The temperature in Yulin City has become warmer since the 1990s,but the signs of further rising in the future are not obvious.The precipitation changes little between years and is not affected by climate warming.After entering this century,the sunshine has stopped the decreasing trend.Through the statistical analysis of the main agrometeorological disasters since the 1960s,the results show that the difference of the rainstorm years is small and the distribution is more uniform;The wind and frost of cold dew decrease obviously with the increase of the annual average temperature,but in the 1990s,where the temperature is warming more rapidly,it is easy to produce serious agrometeorological disasters.【Conclusion】At present,the future temperature in Yulin City has no signs of continued warming.Corresponding to the warming of temperature,the frequency of wind and frost in cold dew decreased obviously,and frost was more obvious.The precipitation is not affected by the interannual variation of temperature.It is speculated that the sunshine in Yulin City will fluctuate and increase in the low value area in the next few years.