森林碳汇替代配额减排的成本比较

Cost Comparison on Substitution of Carbon Emission Reduction Quotas with Forest Carbon Sink

以北京市、上海市、天津市、深圳市、广东省、湖北省、重庆市7个碳交易试点省市为样本区,利用各地公布的统计年鉴,收集上述地区工业行业自2007年到2016年工业行业的三个投入数据:职工人数、能源消耗总量、资产总额,以及两个产出数据:二氧化碳排放总量、工业总产值,使用方向性距离函数估算出样本地区工业企业的碳影子价格,运用最优模型法和蓄积量转换法计算出我国森林碳汇的最优价格,最后根据国务院于2016年下发的温室气体减排办法中的碳强度倒推现行控排政策下的企业减排总差量,计算出试点地区碳配额的平均价格为4.456 6万元·t^(-1),我国森林碳汇的远期最优价格为9.37～16.28美元·t^(-1)。结合各样本地区温室气体控排方案,得出使用森林碳汇替代配额减排能够为企业大量减少减排成本。提出了相关政策建议:继续探索重点工业碳市场交易以及碳商品价格情况,扩大碳排放权交易的适用行业;尽快出台相关的森林碳汇交易配套政策;丰富森林碳汇商品种类,适当提高森林碳汇在总排放中抵减的比例。

Data of input in industry such as number of employees, energy consumption and gross assets, and output like carbon emission and total industrial output value was collected from statistic yearbook of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Guangdong, Hubei and Chongqing during 2007 to 2016. Carbon shadow price of industrial enterprises was estimated by input distance function and the optimal price of forest carbon sink was calculated by the optimal model and volume conversion method. Mean carbon emission reduction quotas was 44 566 Yuan·t-1 in cities and provinces above-mentioned, the best forward price of carbon sink would be 9.37-16.28 USD·t-1. Suggestions were put forwarded such as CO2 abatement allocation trading, better supporting policies, more forest carbon sink commodities.