技术进步过程的非线性趋势和异质性特征研究

No-linear Trend and Heterogeneity Character of the Technology Progress Process

技术创新效率、创造性破坏在渐进式和跨越式技术进步中产生差异性作用,技术进步具有随机变动特征,构建Bellman方程分析其动态变化趋势和特征。研究认为,技术创新效率引导厂商充分利用既定创新资源,改善产出投入比例,使技术进步路径朝着厂商最优化效益目标逐渐收敛,总体是先易后难,拉动技术进步不显著。创造性破坏加快技术积累与进步,技术水平在较低阶段上快速提升,技术进步路径不是持续渐进升级的,跨越多个阶段推动技术进步,发生着较大幅度波动。两者共同作用使技术进步更加具有不确定性,呈现非线性趋势和异质性特征。本文在门限自回归和分位数自回归分析基础上,引入门限分位数自回归模型,开展实证分析并验证相关结论。

The technology innovation productivity and the creative destruction play the different role on the step-by-step and great leap technology progress.Analysis of the trend and character with the Bellman Equation,caused the technology progress to random fluctuate,technology progress is restrained with the benefit object gradually.The view of the research is that the technology innovation productivity adopts the technology innovation achievement repeatedly and circle,technology progress is sustained,non-prominent.The creative destructive promotes the technology accumulation,the technology enhances rapidly based of the lower level,change the tradition path of the step-by-step advance leading to great leap technology progress.The technology progress with no-linear and heterogeneity during technology innovation continually.Basic on the threshold autoregressive(TAR)and the quantile autoregressive(QAR),then constructing the threshold and quantile autoregressive(TQAR)to carry the empirical analysis.