经济结构变动与未来中国能源需求走势

Changes in the Economic Structure and Trends in China's Future Energy Demands

科学地评估未来中国能源需求走势具有重要意义。利用1995—2015年省级面板数据,从高耗能行业占国民经济比重变化的角度,研究经济总量、高耗能行业发展和能源需求三者的关系。结果发现,经济总量对能源需求的影响是通过高耗能行业进行的,经济结构变动是能源需求变动的主要因素。因此,中国未来能源需求将远低于未考虑该因素的结果。全面推动绿色发展,加强对高耗能行业的调控,将是实现中国能耗总量控制目标的关键选择之一。

Evaluating trends in China’s future energy demands is highly important.Using provincial-level panel dat from 1995 to 2015,we studied the relationships between the economic aggregate,the development of the high-energy consumption industry,and energy demand.We find that the economic aggregate affects energy demand through the high-energy consumption industry and that changes in the economic structure are the main factor in changes to energy demand.This means that China’s future energy demands will be much lower than those contained in forecasts that did not consider this factor.Comprehensively promoting green-tech development and strengthening regulation of the high-energy consumption industry will be key option for realizing China’s objective of controlling total energy consumption.