油气藏勘探目标评价与投资组合优选

Exploration Target Evaluation and Investment Portfolio Optimization of Oil and Gas Reservoirs

针对油气藏勘探目标评价问题,构建了油气藏勘探目标评价模型,完善了油气藏勘探目标评价指标体系,探讨了多目标情况下投资组合途径及最佳组合的确定方式。研究结果表明:所构建的油气藏勘探目标评价模型融合了地质风险与储量价值两方面内容,其中,地质风险又可细化为4个主因素,储量价值则是在蒙特卡洛模拟法计算出可采储量基础上,用现金流法计算储量经济效益;利用投资组合原理,计算并制作"收益-风险"分布图和有效前沿曲线,在战略和投资总量约束条件下确定最佳投资组合。通过对某石油公司计划钻探目标进行评价,优选了油气藏评价勘探部署方案。该模型符合国际油气经济技术发展和石油公司效益勘探趋势,研究结果对油气藏勘探评价及投资组合优选具有一定的指导意义。

Aiming at the problem of exploration target evaluation of oil and gas reservoirs, an exploration target evaluation model of oil and gas reservoir was built, the exploration target evaluation index system of oil and gas reservoir was perfected, and the way of investment portfolio and the determination mode of optimal investment portfolio in the case of multiple targets were discussed. The study results show that the exploration target evaluation model of oil and gas reservoir combines geological risk and reserve value, in which, geological risk can be divided into 4 main factors, and the reserve value is to use the cash flow method to calculate the economic benefit of reserves based on recoverable reserves figured out by Monte Carlo simulation method;the investment portfolio theory is used to calculate and draw the "profit-risk" distribution map and effective frontier curve, and the optimal investment portfolio is determined under the constraints of strategy and aggregate investment. Based on the evaluation of a drilling target planned by an oil company, the evaluation and exploration deployment program of the reservoir was optimized. The model is in line with the economic and technological development trend of international oil and gas and the benefit exploration trend of oil companies, and the study results are very instructive in oil and gas reservoir exploration evaluation and investment portfolio optimization.