人民币汇率对房地产市场价格的多渠道影响效应研究:基于金融动态CGE模型

Effect Mechanism of RMB Exchange Rate on House Price:An Empirical Investigation by Financial Dynamic CGE Model

笔者基于对房地产市场影响因素及汇率对房价传导渠道的一般性经验分析,构建符合我国宏观经济框架的金融动态CGE模型。实证研究结果显示,汇率波动对房地产市场价格存在显性影响,房价对人民币升值带来的输入型通缩效应及贬值带来的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应存在阶段性响应;此外,汇率变化带来的信贷效应、流动性效应、预期效应、财富效应与溢出效应均对房价存在影响,其中影响最强烈的是溢出效应。宏观调控政策制定者应以避免跨境套利资本冲击境内资产价格为目标,深化汇率形成机制改革、强化跨境资本流动监管,助力房地产市场乃至实体经济的长期稳定健康发展。

Based on the theoretical analysis of the influencing factors of real estate market and the transmission channel of exchange rate to house price,this paper constructs a financial dynamic CGE model which conforms to the macroeconomic framework of China. The empirical results show that exchange rate volatility has an obvious impact on the real estate market price,and there is a periodic response to the imported deflation effect and the Balassa-Samuelson effect brought about by the appreciation of RMB and the depreciation;in addition,the credit effect,liquidity effect,expectation effect and wealth effect brought about by the exchange rate change all have impacts on housing prices,and the most influential factor is spillover effect. To avoid the impact of cross-border arbitrage capital on domestic asset prices,formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate,cross-border capital should be regulated by policymakers,so as to achieve long-term stable and healthy deve-lopment of the housing market and economy.