山东荣成鲁32井水温异常与地震的关系研究

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WATER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND EARTHQUAKES IN SHANDONG RONGCHENG LU NO.32 WELL

对鲁32井水温变化、井孔条件及影响因素做了简要介绍,分析了2014年以来该井周围300 km范围M_L4.0级以上地震、2008年以来500 km范围M 4.8级以上地震及日本本州M 7级以上大震及特大地震与该井水温异常的关系,给出了有震异常占总异常的概率水平及有异常响应的地震占总地震的概率水平,显示鲁32井水温异常对300 km范围M_L≥4.0级小震、 500 km范围M≥4.8级地震的前兆意义不明显,映震能力较弱;对东部远场区M≥7级地震,尤其是日本本州及近海的"大震"及"特大地震"前兆意义明显,映震能力较强。

In this paper, Lu No.32 well borehole conditions, changes in water temperature and influencing factors are introduced. The relationship between the M L4.0 earthquakes in the 300 km range around the well since 2014, the M L 4.8 earthquakes in the 500 km range since 2008, and the large earthquakes and mega-magnitudes above M L7.0 in Honshu, Japan, with the water temperature anomalies in the well are analyzed. The probability level of earthquake anomalies in total earthquake anomalies and the probability of earthquakes with abnormal responses in total earthquakes are given. It shows that the water temperature anomaly in Lu No.32 well is not obvious to the M L ≥4.0 small earthquakes in the 300 km range, the M ≥4.8 mid-seismic in the 500 km range, the ability to reflect medium earthquakes is weak for Lu No.32 well, however, the M ≥7“big earthquakes” and “extra large earthquakes” in the eastern-far-field area,especially for Honshu and offshore in Japan,the responding relationship is obvious.