“二十四道拐”盘山公路事故预测分析

Accident Prediction of “24-Zigs” Mountain Road

应用IHSDM安全评估软件,对"二十四道拐"盘山公路全线进行事故预测,并预测1944年改善工程前"第21拐"、"第22拐"路段与改善后对应路段发生事故的概率,以评价"二十四道拐"盘山公路的行车安全性及验证改善工程的合理性。预测结果发现"二十四道拐"盘山公路1940年至1945年5年的时间内共发生4.02起事故,其中68%的事故类型为"仅财产损失";在1944年改善工程调整"二十四道拐"盘山公路的"第21拐"、"第22拐"后,对应改善路段总预测事故起数降低了10.5%,且发生"死亡、严重受伤事故"的概率降低了14.3%,第4拐事故率降低了14.6%,第5拐事故率降低了38.8%。研究表明:"二十四道拐"盘山公路发生事故的概率较低,且事故损伤严重程度较轻;改善工程取消半径较小S型曲线后,行车安全性有所提高。可见,修筑于战时环境下的"二十四道拐"盘山公路线形设计基本能满足当时交通运输的行车安全性,其独特的线形设计也为现代山区公路的修建提供设计启示与技术参考。

By using IHSDM (Interactive Highway Safety Design Model),the accident prediction of “24-zigs” mountain road was made,and the accident probability of the section from “the 21 st -zig” to “the 22 nd -zig” before and after improvement project in 1944 was predicted,so as to evaluate the driving security of “24-zigs” mountain road and to verify the rationality of the improvement project.The prediction results found that there were 4.02 accidents in the period from 1940 to 1945,and 68% of the accident type was “property loss only”.After the adjustment of “the 21 st -zig” and “the 22 nd -zig” in 1944 improvement project,the total number of accidents predicted for the improved sections decreased by 10.5%,the probability of “death and serious injury accidents” decreased by 14.3%,the accident rate of “the 4 th -zig” turned down by 14.6%,and the accident rate of “the 5 th -zig” turned down by 38.8%.The research results indicate that there is a low accident probability on “24-zigs” mountain road,and the accident damage is less severe.After the S-shaped curve with smaller radius is cancelled after the improvement project,the driving safety is improved.Obviously,although built in the wartime,the “24-zigs” mountain road can satisfy the primary driving security at that time,and its unique alignment design also provides design inspiration and technical reference for the construction of modern mountainous roads.