人力资本如何影响官员晋升——基于1990～2013年省级领导晋升过程的研究

How Human Capital Affects Political Upward Mobility: Evidence of Promotional Trajectories of Chinese Provincial Leaders from 1990 to 2013

近四十年来,官员晋升的研究文献层出不穷并呈现出不断深化的趋势,官员晋升研究已成为研究中国政治权力结构及其运行机制的热点议题。本文通过分析1990～2013年省级领导的教育历史和工作经历,运用事件史分析方法,研究人力资本是否以及如何影响政治晋升过程。研究结果表明,人力资本持续影响省级领导从县处级副职到国家级副职的晋升。就教育水平而言,除省部级正职外,教育水平越高,对晋升的促进作用越大,大专与本科学历对政治升迁的影响无明显差异。就所学专业而言,理工科相对于人文社科的优势主要体现在厅局级副职和省部级副职的晋升过程中。就工作经历而言,党政机关工作年限在晋升到厅局级副职及以下以及晋升到省部级副职时对政治晋升产生显著负相关关系。职业类型多样性是一个重要却长期被忽略的晋升影响因素,对县处级正职及以上的晋升都产生显著影响,职业类型多样的官员更容易获得晋升。

There has been observed a vast outpouring of literature on leadership promotion and its strong tendency for in-depth analysis in the past forty years.This has become a significant topic for examining the power structure and the political mechanism in China.This study analyses whether and how human capital affects political upward mobility by applying event history analysis and studying educational histories and career experiences for 1990-2013 Chinese provincial leaders.The results show that human capital significantly and consistently plays an important role in the promotional trajectories from the deputy-division-head level to the vice-state-leader level.The educational level is positively and significantly related to promotion rates at most of the administrative ranks except for the vice-provincial/ministerial level.There is no apparent difference in the effect on promotion between some college and university education.In terms of academic majors,political elites majoring in science and engineering are advantaged over those studying humanities and social sciences in advancing to the deputy-bureau/director level and the vice-provincial/ministerial level.Public service seniority is significantly and negatively associated with the promotions to the deputy-bureau/director level or below as well as the vice-provincial/ministerial level.The variable of diversity in career pattern is a primary but long-neglected factor for political upward mobility.For the promotions to the division-head level or above,those with diverse career patterns are more likely to get promoted.