基于岭回归的江苏省社会消费品零售额影响因素分析

Analysis of Influential Factors on Retail Sales of Social Consumption Goods in Jiangsu Province Based on Ridge Regression

研究社会消费品零售额影响因素,对制定宏观经济政策、保持市场供需平衡、维护经济平稳发展等具有重要意义。岭回归是一种专用于共线性数据分析的有偏估计回归方法,是对最小二乘估计法的改良。文章运用岭回归原理和方法分析了江苏省社会消费品零售额与城镇居民收入、农村居民收入、城镇化率、全省总人口的关系。研究表明,对江苏省社会消费品零售额影响最大的是农村居民收入,最小的是人口数量,城镇居民收入对社会消费品零售额影响也很显著。由于江苏省人口变动幅度不大,对社会消费品零售额影响不太明显。

It is of great significance of studying the influential factors on retail sales of consumer goods to formulate macroeconomic policies,maintain market supply and demand balance,and keep stable economic development.As a biased estimation regression method dedicated to collinear data analysis,ridge regression is an improvement of the least squares estimation method.Thus,the principle and method of ridge regression are used in this paper to analyze the relationship between the retail sales of social consumer goods in Jiangsu Province and the income of urban and rural residents,urbanization rate and the total population of the province.Result shows that the greatest impact on the retail sales of social consumer goods of Jiangsu province is the income of rural residents,the smallest is the number of population.The impact of urban residents'income on retail sales of social consumer goods is also significant.Due to the small population change in Jiangsu,the impact on retail sales of consumer goods is not obvious.