基础设施对国际贸易的影响研究——基于荟萃分析的检验

Research on Infrastructure's Impact on International Trade——Inspection Based on Meta Analysis

改革开放四十年来,我国公路、铁路(高铁)、航空、港口、通信等基础设施建设取得显著成就,对国际贸易发展产生了巨大影响。以定量方式厘清基础设施与国际贸易之间的内在关联机制,对我国协调各项基础设施建设,优化对外贸易结构,进而促进对外贸易转型意义重大。可通过荟萃(Meta)分析方法对相关文献中的定量观点进行综合分析,以量化基础设施对国际贸易的影响。以基础设施对国际贸易效应的显著性为因变量,应用64篇重要文献的594个效应值,从样本特征、研究方法、国际贸易测量方法、基础设施测量方法、研究地区经济发展水平、样本结构、模型说明、出版性质、文献权重九个层面入手检验调节变量对实证结果的影响,发现基础设施对国际贸易影响的实证结果会受到各研究特征的影响,即随着调节变量的改变,基础设施与国际贸易的关系会产生差异。其中,当文献检验模型使用工具变量法、采用出口衡量国际贸易水平、以公路和铁路衡量基础设施、检验发达地区经济水平、不包含汇率时,有助于促使基础设施对国际贸易产生显著影响或显著正向影响。因此,为更加充分地发挥基础设施在促进国际贸易发展方面的基础性作用,一方面要立足长远,统筹规划,加快基础设施建设,建立与世界各国基础设施网络无缝对接的发达的基础设施网络体系;另一方面要建立政府主导、市场调节、企业化运作的高效基础设施投资体制和运行机制,提高投资建设效率,降低基础设施建设成本。

In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China has made remarkable achievements in infrastructure construction,such as highway,railway(high-speed railway),aviation,port,communication and so on,which has a great impact on the development of international trade.It is of great significance for China to clarify the internal correlation mechanism between infrastructure and international trade in a quantitative way so as to coordinate infrastructure construction,optimize the structure of foreign trade and further promote the transformation of foreign trade.Through meta-analysis method,the authors synthetically analyze the relevant research literature to quantify the impact of infrastructure on international trade.By setting the significance of the infrastructure to the international trade effect as the dependent variable,the authors examine the impact of infrastructure on international trade by means of estimates obtained from 64 primary studies that yield 594 infrastructure elasticities of international trade,and examine the impact of regulatory variables on empirical results from nine levels:the sample characteristics,research methods,international trade measurement method,measurement method,level of regional economic development,sample structure,model description,nature of publication,and literature weight.The results show that the relationship between infrastructure and international trade is different because of the intervention of regulatory variables.When the literature test model adopts instrumental variable method,export measurement trade level,land infrastructure,developed economy level,and excluding exchange rate,it is beneficial to the result that"infrastructure has a significant or significant positive impact on international trade".To better give play to the fundamental role of infrastructure in promoting international trade development,on one hand,we should accelerate the construction of infrastructure,establish the advanced infrastructure network connecting with world infrastructure network;on the other hand,we should establish the efficient infrastructure investment system and operation mechanism that is lead by the government,adjusted by the market,and operated by enterprises,improve the efficient of investment and building,and reduce the cost of infrastructure construction.