大型旅游活动停车需求预测研究

Parking Demand Forecast of Large Tourism Organizations

为了研究大型旅游活动停车需求,分析大型旅游活动的停车特性,建立大型旅游活动的客流规模—停车需求预测两阶段模型,采用经验推算、分类预测—计量经济模型预测总体客流规模。停车需求模型将机动车OD模型引入,基于客流预测基准数,可得出实际停车泊位数,结合实例对上述模型进行了验证,结果表明客流规模—停车需求预测模型能够预测大型旅游活动的停车泊位需求,为大型旅游活动停车需求预测提供了一定的参考价值。

In order to study the parking demand of large-scale tourism activities,analyze the parking characteristics of large-scale tourism activities,establish a two-stage model of passenger flow scale-parking demand forecast for large-scale tourism activities,and use empirical calculation,classification prediction-econometric model to predict the overall passenger flow scale.The parking demand model introduces the vehicle OD model.Based on the passenger flow prediction reference number,the actual parking berth can be obtained.The above model is verified by an example.The result shows that the passenger flow scale-parking demand prediction model can predict the parking berth of large-scale tourism activities.Demand has provided a certain reference value for the forecast of parking demand for large-scale tourism activities.