珠三角城市圈物流能力对经济增长的作用研究——基于2001～2015年数据的协整分析

Study on the Effect of Logistics Industry Development on Economic Growth in the Pearl River Delta Region——Cointegration Analysis Based on 2001～2015 Data

运用珠三角城市圈2001～2015年的数据对物流能力和经济增长的关系进行了协整分析、Granger因果关系检验。研究发现,物流能力与经济增长之间存在协整关系和物流能力对经济增长的单向因果关系。最后,基于对珠三角城市圈物流能力与经济增长互动发展分析的结论,对珠三角城市圈发展物流能力提出策略建议。

Based on the data of 2001~2015 in the Pearl River Delta region,this paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth and the development of logistics industry,and establishes error correction model,perform cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.The study found that there is a reliable cointegration relationship and unidirectional causality relationship between logistics industry scale and economic scale.and at the end,proposed the strategy to develop the logistics capability of PRD.