中国在外高加索地区的安全风险及其规避

Security Risks Faced by China in the Transcaucasian Region and Its Risk-aversion Efforts

外高加索三国是古老"丝绸之路"上的重要国家,它们将中国、中亚与欧洲联结起来,且地缘政治意义非常重大,1991年以后一直是大国争夺的对象。在"一带一路"倡议的框架内,中国与外高加索的亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆和格鲁吉亚三国建立起了紧密合作关系。三国积极支持中国"一带一路"倡议,将其视为重要机遇,政界、学界乃至媒体都予以热烈回应和积极配合。在"一带一路"倡议的框架下,中国与相关国家的许多合作项目顺利推进,中国对高加索地区的影响进一步加强。中国与外高加索国家的合作前景中,中国也将面临外高加索国家自身存在的不同层次、不同性质的消极问题乃至安全风险。主要体现在:外高加索三国内部的社会政治问题、外高加索三国之间的复杂关系、相关国家输入性恐怖主义、外高加索地区可能面临的地缘政治变局。大国在某地区的竞争也会波及其他地区,甚至在全球引发共振。2018年以来,外高加索地区乃至周边国家以及遥远的其他地区都发生或酝酿着深刻变局,这些趋势和动态都不同程度地相互交织,互相影响。中国在外高加索地区拥有巨大的地缘政治、地缘经济和地缘文化利益,因而必须正视这些安全风险,并审慎规避。

Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan are the three important Transcaucasian countries along the ancient Silk Road. They hold great geopolitical significance for China's "Belt and Road" initiative that connects China with Europe through Central Asia. Since 1991, great powers have been striving to win over these countries due to their unique strategic position. Under the framework of the "Belt and Road" initiative, China has established close cooperation with them. The three Transcaucasian countries have taken a positive attitude toward the initiative and deemed it as a golden opportunity for their economic development. The political and academic circles as well as the media have been particularly cooperative in promoting the initiative. In this favorable context, many cooperation projects between China and relevant countries have been well under way and China's influence over the Caucasus region has been further strengthened. However, China may also need to deal with, at different levels, the varied nature and complexity of a range of domestic issues of relevant countries. This paper intends to discuss the possible risks in the future cooperation between China and the Transcaucasian countries under the framework of the "Belt and Road" initiative from four aspects: the domestic socio-political issues in the three countries, the complex and fragile trilateral relations, the exogenous terrorism of relevant countries and the impending geopolitical changes that the Caucasus region may face. Today, the great power contest in a certain region could also spill over to other regions and even cause resonance across the globe. Given that China has enormous vested geopolitical, geo-economic and geo-cultural interests in the Caucasus region, these security risks must be evaluated carefully and addressed properly.