水下关断阀设置必要性定量风险及经济性分析

Quantitative Risk and Economic Assessment for Necessity of Sub-Sea Isolation Valve

论文利用BPCIRRUS和PHAST软件,对设置水下关断阀的天然气输送管线泄漏造成的气体扩散过程进行了建模。结果表明:水下关断阀内外侧海底管道发生泄漏不会危及平台结构和人员安全,而平台立管顶部泄漏并发生火灾则会对平台结构和人员造成危险。针对该危险,利用风险分析的方法进行评估;评估表明设置水下关断阀能够大幅降低平台及人员生命风险。此外,从经济角度进行比较,发现设置水下关断阀获得的总收益为270万美元;与设置水下关断阀的总投资300万美元相比是相当的,从成本效益角度讲是值得投入的。

A model of gas diffusion process is developed with software BP CIRRUS and PHAST to simulate the leakage of natural gas pipeline with sub-sea isolation valves.The results show that the leakage should not affect the platform structure and personnel security.When the top of the riser is leaking,the fire can be dangerous to the platform structure and personnel.The analytical method is used to evaluate the risk,and the assessment indicates that the sub-sea isolation valve can significantly reduce the risk of the platform and life of personnel.In addition,total revenue of the sub-sea isolation valve was calculated to be$2.7 million.Compared with the total investment of$3 million for the sub-sea isolation valve,it is worth investing in cost-benefit.