基于PSR和物元可拓模型的水资源承载力预警研究

Study on water resources bearing capacity early warning based on PSR and matter-element extension model

基于"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型构建了水资源承载力预警指标体系,利用物元可拓模型对水资源承载力进行警情综合评价确定警情级别和级别偏向程度,最后运用非线性灰色伯努利模型(NGBM)对未来水资源承载力警情变化趋势进行预测。以宿迁市为例,开展水资源承载力预警的实例研究并分析警情变化原因。研究结果表明,宿迁市2011—2017年水资源承载力预警等级从轻警上升为中警,主要原因是经济发展和城镇化水平的提高造成了用水紧张。结合2011—2017年警情数据,对未来三年水资源承载力进行警情预测,宿迁市2018—2020年水资源承载力仍保持在"中警"水平,但预警等级特征值有不断减小的趋势,警戒程度有所缓解。

Based on “pressure-state-response ”(PSR ) model, we build the early warning index system of the water resources carrying capacity,utilize matter-element extension model to make comprehensive assessment of water resources carrying capacity to determine the level of alarm and the degree of grade deviation, and finally use nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NGBM ) to forecast the alert of water resources carrying capacity in the future. We take Suqian as an example to study water resources bearing capacity early warning and analyse the cause of change. The research results show that Suqian water resources carrying capacity warning arises from “low level ” to “middle level ” from 2011 to 2017,the main reason is that the economic development and the urbanization raise water shortage. Combined with the data from 2011 to 2017, the water resources carrying capacity from 2011 to 2017 of Suqian remains in “middle level ”, but the characteristic value of warning level has a tendency to decrease, and the warning degree is alleviated.