雾霾会促进公众绿色投资意愿么?——基于SEM的实证研究

Does smog risk increase green investment willingness?: an empirical study based on a structural equation model

当下雾霾天气愈发严重,全国各省市相继推出一系列雾霾治理政策,绿色债券、绿色基金等一系列绿色金融产品涌现,一方面政策大力支持环保企业发展,另一方面投资者对于绿色金融市场的参与热情并不高,因此研究雾霾相关政策如何引导公众参与绿色投资具有重要的政策意义。本文根据雾霾污染程度及政策力度两个指标,将中国省级区域划分为高、中、低雾霾敏感区,基于"风险感知-态度-行为"理论框架,设计里克特5级量表,对高、中敏感区人群按照雾霾风险感知、风险偏好和绿色投资意愿三个潜变量构建结构方程模型,并以低敏感区投资者的绿色投资意愿进行对照分析,共收集有效问卷517份,利用SPSS和AMOS等软件进行数据测算以及模型拟合,研究雾霾风险对公众绿色投资意愿的长期影响。结果表明:对于高、中敏感区投资者来说,绿色投资意愿与纯粹的风险偏好之间没有直接关系,但在风险偏好与雾霾风险感知两个因素的相互作用下,公众绿色投资意愿与雾霾风险感知呈现显著的正相关;对照分析表明,低雾霾敏感区与高、中敏感区的绿色投资意愿同样强烈。公众的绿色投资意愿的表现为:公众投资者期望提高绿色金融产品的环境信息披露水平,愿意接受低于常规收益的雾霾治理类投资产品,并看好环保类股票的投资价值。这表明充分披露雾霾天气情况,提高绿色金融产品标的资产的环境信息披露水平以及加强监管等,都有利于促进公众的绿色投资意愿,且该意愿在全国范围内没有显著差异,因此引导各地区绿色投资的协调发展具有良好前景。同时投资者对绿色投资不存在先入为主的风险水平判断,在合理的引导下,绿色产业可能获得平等或更多的融资机会。政府应加大支持力度支持有资质的企业发行绿色债券及绿色股票;金融机构应有针对性地推出环保类投资理财产品,丰富绿色投资市场的产品种类,为环保项目提供资金支持,让公众投资者拥有更多参与绿色投资的机会。

Chinese air quality is currently inadequate, influencing our daily life. The government has launched countless smog governance policies, meanwhile, a series of green financial products like green bonds and green funds have emerged. As government together with enterprises is supporting and developing green programs, public investors are not so into it, and therefore the research of the impact on public green investment behavior exerted by smog risk has great policy significance. This paper considers both air quality and policy strength, and classifies provincial areas into three sensitivity levels, namely high, medium and low. Based on the ‘risk perception-preference-behavior’ conceptual framework, we designed Likert scale to measure smog risk perception, risk preference and green investment willingness. For high and medium sensitivity areas, the structural equation model is constructed according to the three latent variables, and low sensitivity areas are treated as a control group. In total, 517 valid questionnaires were collected and we used the software SPSS and AMOS to fit model. It is concluded that although there is no direct correlation between risk preference and green investment willingness, under the interacting effect of smog risk perception and risk preference, public green investment willingness is positively related to smog risk perception. In the comparative analysis, investors in different areas possess equal enthusiasm for green investment. For green finance policy making, investors are expecting a higher environmental information disclosure level, are willing to accept products for smog management despite lower benefits by 1%, and are attaching higher value to stocks of environmental character. The results give much inspiration to green finance development. For one thing, the government and relevant institutions that issue green financial products should improve the environmental information disclosure level of the underlying assets as well as the actual weather condition nationwide, strengthen supervision and encourage investors to participate in green investment. For another, given that green investment willingness has no significant differences across the whole nation, the government can support qualified enterprises to issue green bonds and green stocks in a coordinated way, and the financial institutions can launch financial products related to green bonds and stocks to not only provide financial support for environmental protection projects, but also to enrich green investment market, consequently public investors would have the opportunity to participate in the green investment.