长江经济带水土资源约束的动态转换机制及空间异质性分析——基于平滑面板转换模型和趋势面的检验

Dynamic transformation mechanism and spatial heterogeneity analysis to water and land resources constraints in the Yangtze River Economic Zone:A test based on PSTR model and trend surface

"资源尾效"和"资源诅咒"是资源对经济增长约束的两种不同状态,分别表示资源相对不足和资源相对丰裕下对经济增长的约束作用。在一定条件下,二者是可以转换且这种转换存在空间异质性。因此针对资源丰裕度不同和发展阶段不同的异质性区域而言,研究其资源所起的约束作用,就显得很有政策含义。本文利用生产函数曲线重构资源约束的两种状态,并基于新古典增长理论建立起二者转换的判别条件及转换机制模型。通过选取长江经济带11个省市2003—2016年的面板数据,使用平滑面板转换(PSTR)模型考察了"资源尾效"和"资源诅咒"之间的转换机制,并且在此基础上运用趋势面分析方法分析其转换的空间异质性。结果表明:①理论模型推导发现,在规模报酬不变等假设条件下,当资源增长弹性不等于2/3时,"资源尾效"和"资源诅咒"可以相互转换;②随着资源投入量的增加,长江经济带水土资源约束作用表现由"资源尾效"向"资源诅咒"转换,其水土资源投入量的转换点分别为203. 00亿m3和134. 00千hm2;③长江经济带水土资源约束的空间分布总体趋势刚好相反,水资源约束空间分布在2009年发生突变,而土地资源约束作用空间分布在时间上的变化趋势却并不明显。本文的启示在于,水土资源约束对长江经济带的经济增长产生了重要影响,要保证长江经济带经济的高质量发展,必须关注水土资源在经济增长中所起的作用;要合理利用水土资源使得资源约束的两种状态之间的转换更加平缓,尽量减少资源对经济增长的约束;另外要重点关注资源约束区域差异,针对不同地区制定有效的措施。

The resource drag and resource curse represent two different states of resource constraints to economic growth which indicate the constraints of the relative shortage and the relative abundance on economic growth respectively. Under certain conditions, the resource drag and the resource curse can be converted, but there is spatial heterogeneity in the transformation. Therefore, it is very meaningful to study the constraints of the resources in the heterogeneous regions with different resource abundance and different stages of economic development. The two states of resource constraint are reconstructed by production function curve, and the model with the discriminant condition and transformation mechanism of the two transformations are established based on neoclassical economic growth theory. Based on the panel data of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2003 to 2016, we used the panel smooth transition regression model and trend surface analysis to test it. The results showed that: through the induction of the model, under the assumption of constant returns to scale and other assumptions, the resource drag and resource curse could be converted to each other when the elasticity of resource growth was not equal to 2/3. The constraint of water and land resource in the Yangtze River Economic Zone was transformed from resource drag to resource curse, and its breaking points were 20.3 billion m 3 and 134 000 hm 2 of water and land resources input amount respectively. The general trend of the spatial distribution of the constraints of water and land resources was opposite in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. The break point of the spatial difference of the constraint of water resources was in 2009, while the spatial variation of land resources constraint was not obvious. The paper proposed that, the restriction of land and water resources was important to the economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. To ensure the high quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Zone, we must pay attention to the role of water and land resources in economic growth. It is necessary to reasonably use water and land resources so as to realize more smooth transformation between the two states of resources constrained, and to minimize the constraint of resources on economic growth. We should pay attention to resource constraints and assign differentiated policies to different regions.