低碳技术创新有效抑制了碳排放吗?——基于PSTR模型的实证分析

Does Low-carbon Technology Innovation Effectively Curb Carbon Emission?Empirical Analysis Based on PSTR Model

利用1992—2012年71个国家或地区的专利统计数据,从全球视角检验了低碳技术创新对碳排放的抑制作用,并分析了收入水平对低碳技术创新的碳减排作用的门槛效应。研究表明:(1)低碳技术创新对碳排放的作用并非线性,两者的关系会受到收入水平的影响,具体而言,在低收入地区,低碳技术创新对碳排放没有显著的抑制作用,而在高收入地区,低碳技术创新具有显著的碳减排作用;(2)低碳技术创新的碳排放抑制作用随收入不断增强的过程是平滑转换的;(3)在碳减排渠道方面,低碳技术创新具有提升能源效率和抑制能源结构碳强度的作用,并且收入水平在两个渠道中存在不同的门槛效应。因此,低收入国家应积极设计并实施鼓励低碳技术落地应用的政策,应采取措施促进低碳技术创新在国家间的扩散,且全球范围内的低碳技术创新体系亟待进行一场根本性变革。

Based on the panel data of 71 countries or regions in the world from 1992 to 2012,this paper empirically analyzes impacts of low-carbon technology innovations on carbon emissions and examinesthe threshold effects of the level of income on low-carbon technology innovations.The main findings are as follows.Firstly,the effect of low-carbon technology innovations on carbon emissions is not linear,and relationship between the two will be affected by income levels.Specifically,the low-carbon technology innovations only take obvious effects in the high income group.Secondly,a smooth transition mechanism can be found along with the income level.Finally,in terms of carbon emission reduction channels,low-carbon technology innovations have the effect of increasing energy efficiency and suppressing the carbon intensity of energy structures,and income levels have different threshold effects in both channels.Therefore,low-income countries should actively design and implement policies to encourage the application of low-carbon technology,take measures to promote the diffusion of low-carbon technology innovation among countries,and the global low-carbon technology innovation system urgently needs a fundamental change.