沣河流域水文气象要素变化特征分析

Variation Characteristics Analysis of Hydrologic Meteorological Elements in Fenghe River Basin

为更好地理解气候变化对沣河流域径流变化的影响,采用滑动平均法、累积距平法、M-K检验法、小波分析法等方法对沣河流域1965年—2016年的降水和径流的变化特征进行分析。结果表明:年降水量和年径流量总体均呈现减小的趋势,减小的速率分别为0.007 2 mm/a和0.011 4亿m^3/a;年降水量和年径流量分别在1990年、2002年和1990年、2008年前后发生突变;年降水量序列和年径流量序列年际变化的第一主周期分别为25 a～30 a和27 a～32 a。

In order to better understand the impacts of climate change on runoff of Fenghe River Basin, this article adopted multiple methods including moving average, accumulative anomaly method, M-K test and wavelet analysis to analyze the variation characteristics of precipitation and runoff from 1965 to 2016 in Fenghe River Basin. The results showed that the precipitation and runoff all have a decreasing trend with a rate of 0.007 2 mm/a and 1.14 million m^3/a, respectively;the point of abrupt change of the sequences of precipitation and runoff separately occurred in 1990, 2002 and 1990, 2008;the first primary cycle of the inter annual variation of the sequences of precipitation and runoff were 25 a^30 a and 27 a^32 a, respectively.