非金融企业杠杆率合理性评价与调节路径研究

Study on the Rationality Evaluation and Adjustment Path of Leverage Ratio of Non-financial Enterprises

自2008年以来,为消除世界金融危机所带来的不利影响,我国经历了一个非金融企业杠杆率快速提升的阶段,并在2017年初达到157.7%,远远超出发达经济体88.9%的平均水平。由于高杠杆与高风险并存,非金融企业杠杆率过高问题备受社会各界关注,去杠杆、防风险成为我国一项重要的经济工作。通过对非金融企业杠杆率形成与调节机制进行分析梳理,基于非金融企业的理性经营行为,构建非金融企业杠杆率合理水平测算模型、评价模型和调节模型,并在相关数据采集和模型检验的基础上,对我国非金融企业杠杆率的合理性进行评价。结果显示:我国非金融企业杠杆率长期处于不合理状态,且近年有进一步扩大的趋势;非金融企业生产税净值率和最终产品价格、央行存款准备金率对其杠杆率的形成有重要影响作用。因此,调节我国非金融企业杠杆率的不合理性,可以从生产税净值率和存款准备金率两条路径来进行。

Since 2008,in order to eliminate the adverse impact brought by the world financial crisis,China has experienced a rapid increase in the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises, and reached 157.7% at the beginning of 2017, far exceeding the average level of 88.9% in developed economies. Due to the coexistence of high leverage and high risk, the excessive leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has attracted the attention of all sectors of society,deleveraging and risk prevention have become an important economic work in China. By non-financial enterprises leverage formation and regulating mechanism is analyzed, rational management behavior based on non-financial enterprises, build a non-financial enterprises leverage reasonable calculation model,evaluation model and control model,and on the basis of the relevant data collection and model test,the leverage ratio to evaluate the rationality of non-financial enterprises in China. The results show that the leverage ratio of China’s non-financial enterprises has been in an unreasonable state for a long time and has a trend of further expansion in recent years.The net production tax rate of non-financial enterprises,the price of final products and the deposit reserve ratio of the central bank have an important impact on the formation of their leverage ratio. Therefore, the irrationality of the leverage ratio of China’s non-financial enterprises can be adjusted by two ways:the ratio of net value of production tax and the ratio of deposit reserve.