建设用地扩张与碳排放增长的EKC验证及特征分解研究——以武汉市为例

Validation of the EKC and Characteristics Decomposition between Construction Land Expansion and Carbon Emission: A Case Study of Wuhan City

研究目的:量化碳排放增长与建设用地扩张的关系特征,对建设用地碳排放驱动因素进行分解。研究方法:EKC假说、KAYA恒等式、LMDI分解。研究结果:(1)建设用地总量与工业用地的碳排放EKC关系为倒U型,公共商服与交通用地为N型,居住用地则为U型;(2)地均GDP产出和产业用地规模对产业碳排放增长具有正向作用,而单位GDP产业能耗对产业排放增长具有负向效应,其他因素影响较弱;(3)人均GDP和居住用地规模对生活碳排放具有正向效应,而单位GDP生活能耗、单位能耗排放和居住人口密度具有负向效应;(4)交通出行结构、地均出行人口数和交通用地规模对交通碳排放具有正向效应,单位能耗排放和人均能耗强度对交通碳排放具有负向效应。研究结论:各类建设用地扩张均未达到碳排放增长拐点,工业用地扩张的碳排放边际速率降低使得武汉市碳排放增长趋缓,但居住、公共商服和交通碳排放在城市扩张中具备更快的增长趋势,是控制土地利用碳排放的重点;承载功能差异使得驱动建设用地碳排放增长的因素各异,需结合两者增长的耦合关系和不同因素碳效应探讨建设用地低碳利用途径。

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the relationship between the growth of anthropogenic carbon emission and the expansion of construction land, and then to conduct a decomposition study on the driving factors of carbon emission from construction land. The methods employed include Environment Kuznets Curve theory, Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition. The results showed that: 1)Kuznets Curve of carbon emission and construction land showed a inverted“ U” shape, and so did industrial land. Public commercial land and traffic land showed a“ N” shape and residential land showed a“ U” shape. 2)The GDP per land and scale of industrial land had a positive effect on the growth of industrial carbon emission, while the industrial energy consumption per GDP had a negative one. The others had minor effect. 3)The GDP per capita and residential land scale had a positive effect on the growth of domestic carbon emission. The residential energy consumption per GDP, emissions per energy consumption and density of registered inhabitants showed a negative effect. 4)The transportation structure, traffic population per land and traffic land scale had a positive effect on the growth of traffic carbon emission. However, the emissions per energy consumption and energy intensity per capita had a negative effect on carbon emission. It is concluded that the expansion of all kinds of construction land has not reached the turning point of carbon emission growth, and the reduction in the marginal rate of carbon emission caused by the expansion of industrial land made the growth of total carbon emission in Wuhan City slow down. However, the carbon emission produced by residential land, public commercial land and traffic land showed a faster growth trend in urban expansion, which were the key to controlling carbon emission in the future. Differences in land functions have led to different factors driving the growth of carbon emission from construction land, so it is necessary to explore the low-carbon utilization of different construction land by combining the coupling relationship between carbon emission and construction land growth as well as the different factors. Finally, the paper put forward policy recommendations for the low-carbon utilization of industrial land, residential land as well as traffic land.