非洲猪瘟对中国猪周期的影响以及对策研究

Study on the Influence of African Swine Fever on Chinese Pig Cycle and its Countermeasures

2018年8月以来中国爆发了非洲猪瘟疫情,对中国猪周期和生猪产业产生深远的影响,主要体现在猪价和生猪产能重大变化,成为中国猪周期提前结束的拐点。由于疫区省生猪禁止跨省调运,生猪主销区和主产区猪价出现了"冰火两重天"的现象,生猪最高价格差在118.9%,非洲猪瘟疫情预期减少6 500余万头生猪产能,使本轮中国猪周期提前结束,预期本轮猪周期2～2.5年,成为中国最短猪周期。文章对前阶段防控非洲猪瘟平滑猪周期对策进行论述。

Since August 2018, the outbreak of African swine fever has occurred in China, which had a profound impact on the pig cycle and pig industry in China. It mainly reflected major changes in pig prices and pig production capacity, and had become the turning point for the early end of the pig cycle in China. In the epidemic area, pigs in the province were prohibited from transprovincial transportation. The price of pigs in the main market area and the main production area of pigs appeared to be "ice and fire", and the maximum price of pigs was 118.9%. The epidemic of African swine fever was expected to reduce production capacity of more than 65 million pigs, accelerating the early end of the current Chinese pig cycle. It was expected that the current pig cycle will be 2-2.5 years, making it the shortest pig cycle in China. The article reviewed the countermeasures for preventing and controlling the cycle of smooth pigs in African pigs in the previous stage.