基于混频数据的中国服务业景气指数构建与周期波动分析

Construction of China's Service Sector's Coincident Index and Cycle Fluctuation Analysis Based on Mixed-frequency Data

采用景气分析法筛选出六个服务业一致指标,构建中国服务业月度一致景气指数,对服务业的景气波动进行详细测定和分析。结果显示,本世纪中国服务业增长已经历三轮周期波动,平均周期长度为52个月,总体呈现以上升期为主的"缓增速降"型非对称特征。金融危机后,特别是经济进入新常态以来,服务业景气呈现与此前不同的波动特征,对稳增长和稳就业起到了重要作用。

The paper choose 6 coincident indicators of service sector to construct the service sector coincident index in China based on the Mixed Frequency Dynamic Factor Model, to measure and analyze the characteristics of service sector cycles in this century. The results show that the service sector of China experiences three short cycles in this century and each cycle lasts about 52 months on average. The service sector cycles also present asymmetric cycle characteristics which include "slow expansion & rapid contraction". After the financial crisis, especially in the new normal period, the cycles of service sector have maintained a more stable growth at lower level and narrowing fluctuations than that in the past, which makes more contribution to maintain stable economic growth and employment.