原油正反输送停输初始状态安全性分析

Analysis on Initial State Safety of Pipeline Shutdown During Crude Oil Forward and Reverse Transportation

为了明确原油正反输送过程中不同停输初始状态与停输安全性之间的关系,首先,通过分析正反输送一个周期管内原油的流动状态,创新性地将一个正反输周期划分为正输冷油控制阶段、正输热油控制阶段、反输冷油控制阶段、反输热油控制阶段四个运行阶段;然后,在分析不同阶段管道温降特点的基础上,从油温变化的角度对不同运行阶段停输初始状态的安全性进行定性分析;最后,定义描述正反输送工艺不同停输初始状态安全性的新变量"安全停输概率",从定量的角度对原油正反输送不同时刻停输初始状态的安全性进行分析。结果表明,安全停输概率为±0时,停输安全性最低;安全停输概率为±1时,停输安全性最高。

To define the relationship between initial state and safety of pipeline shutdown under the progress of forward and reverse transporting, the forward and reverse stages have been divided into 4 stages: forward cold oil control stage, forward hot oil control stage, reverse cold oil control stage, reverse hot oil control stage. And under the analysis of pipeline temperature drop on different running stages, qualitative analysis on safety of different initial state of pipeline shutdown is carried out from oil temperature changes. Lastly, a new variable“safe shutdown probability φ”is defined. Quantificationally, the initial state safety of pipeline shutdown on different moments of oil forward and reverse transporting is analyzed. It turns out that while safe shutdown probability is ±0, shutdown is of the lowest safety;while safe shutdown probability is ±1, shutdown is of the highest safety.