湖南省臭氧预报效果评估

Effect Evaluation of Ozone Forecast in Hunan Province

基于2017年3月—2018年2月湖南省14市臭氧观测资料,对WRF-Chem模式预报效果进行评估。结果表明,模式24 h预报结果能够较好地抓住观测到的臭氧变化趋势,其预报结果在14个城市的平均相关系数为0.6,最高可达0.71。对比不同时效臭氧预报结果发现,随着预报时长的增加,预报偏差呈增大趋势, 72 h预报结果仍具有预报价值。统计O3为首要污染物天数,发现多出现在春季、夏季和秋季,且模式的预报准确率可达70%。

Observed ozone concentration of 14 sites were collected and used to comprehensively evaluate the performance of WRF-Chem model in Hunan province from Mar 2017 to Feb 2018.The results show that WRF-Chem model can predict the temporal variation of ozone well 24 hours in advance,with the average correlation coefficient of approximately 0.6.The 72-hour prediction remains valuable,even the biases of model become larger with the longer predicted-time.The statistic about the days of the pollutions of O3 as a primary air pollutant show that the days occur mostly in summer,spring,and autumn,and the accuracy of model forecasts of primary air pollutant was above 70%over all province area.