崩塌滑坡灾害风险识别方法初步研究

ANALYSIS METHODS ON THE RISK IDENTIFICATION OF LANDSLIDE DISASTERS

文章陈述了致灾因子、承灾体、易损性、风险识别、成生原因、变形破坏机理、破坏模式与成灾模式等基本术语的含义。为了提高防灾减灾的有效性,作者提出了崩塌滑坡灾害风险识别的方法,包括历史对比法、直接观察法、间接反演法、遥感遥测法、动态监测法和综合分析法等。考虑斜坡边界形态(a)、成分结构(b)、初始状态(c)、引发条件(d)、环境因素(e)和成灾条件(v)及其随时间(t)的变化,建立了包括6个函数的崩塌滑坡灾害风险综合分析计算模型:Rt=[(f(a)+f(b)+f(c)) d(t)+f(e)]f(v)。采用专家赋值法,以2017年四川茂县"6·24"新磨村滑坡和贵州纳雍"8·28"普洒社区崩塌灾害为例分别对两者的初始、引发和临界灾害风险进行了初步的尝试性的追溯分析,只是一种探索。

Some basic concepts or terminology, such as hazard, disaster vulnerability, risk identification, causes induced, deformation or failure mechanism and disaster modes, et al. are explained in this paper. For to serve effectively in disaster reduction, author puts up methods on the risk identification of landslide disasters which consists historic contrast, direct survey, indirect inversion, remote sensing and telemetering, dynamic monitoring and integrated analysis methods. The model R t=[(f(a)+f(b)+f(c))d(t)+f(e)]f(v) is set up for integrated analysis of landslide disaster risk based on boundary forms(a),compositions and structures(b),initial states(c),induced factors(d),environmental effects(e) around slopes and disaster vulnerability(f) to objects bearing hazard and its changes to follow with time. Integrated risk analysis of two example, landslide-debris flow disaster happened in Jun. 24, 2017 at Xinmo village, Maoxian county, Sichuan province and rockfall-debris flow disaster happened in Aug. 28, 2017 at Pusa community, Nayong county, Guizhou province in China, have been done which includes its initial, induced and critical states by through suggested parameters based on author s personal experience. The results are coincidence comparatively with realistic situation.