1982—2012年河南省夏玉米生育期降水量时空变化格局分析

Analysis on the temporal-spatial variation patterns of precipitation of summer maize growth period in Henan Province during 1982 to 2012

依据河南省各省辖市气象站点1982—2012年降水数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势与突变检验法,研究了河南省夏玉米各主产区生育期降水量的时空变化特征。结果表明,河南省夏玉米各主产区在历年年均降水量和夏玉米生育期降水量分布极不均匀、区域差异明显,豫南>豫东>豫中南>豫西南>豫北>豫西;各产区农田水分亏缺现象普遍存在且有较大差异,尤其豫北和豫西产区水分亏缺最为严重,盈亏量分别为-149.54,-126.6,自然降水量少且农田耗水量大,无法满足玉米生长发育的水分需求;运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Mann-Kendall突变检验,除豫西丘陵主产区外,河南省夏玉米各主产区生育期降水量均呈逐年上升的趋势,其中豫东平原地区的上升趋势显著,而豫西丘陵地区整体呈下降趋势,且下降趋势显著,豫南和豫北产区上升趋势不显著,而豫北和豫西地区玉米生育期内易发生水分亏缺。

Based on the daily meteorological data from 1982 to 2012,especially the precipitation data,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation during the growth period of summer maize in Henan Province were studied by using the Mann-Kendall trend and mutation test method. The results showed that the average annual precipitation and summer maize growing period precipitation in Henan Province were very uneven,and the regional differences were obvious,Southern Henan>Eastern Henan>Mid-Southern Henan>West-Southern Henan>Northern Henan>Western Henan. The phenomenon of water deficit in farmland in different producing areas is common and there is great difference,especially in the north plain of Henan and the hilly area of western Henan,the water deficit is the most serious,water gain or loss are -149.54,-126.6,respectively. So,the natural precipitation is less and the farmland water consumption is large,which can’t meet the water demand of maize growth and development. Using Mann-Kendall trend test and Mann-Kendall mutation test,it was found that the precipitation of summer maize growing period in Henan Province had been increasing year by year,except for the main producing areas in the west of Henan Province,and the rising trend of summer maize in the eastern plain of Henan Province was significant. However,in the hilly areas of western Henan Province,the trend of decline was significant,but the rising trend of the producing areas in the south and north of Henan was not significant,but the water deficit was easy to occur in the growing period of maize in the north and west of Henan Province.