海表温度变化时近海日本鲭栖息地时空分布预测

Distribution forecasting of habitat of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) during the climate change in the coastal waters

海表水温变化影响着中上层鱼类栖息地分布。本研究根据2003—2012年7—12月的近海日本鲭生产统计数据,结合海表温度(SST)数据,利用正态函数分布的方法,分别以作业次数和单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)为指标建立基于水温的适应性指数(SI),取二者平均值作为栖息地适应性指数(HSI)。在气候变化背景下,假设SST上升或下降0.5、1、2°C时,对各月近海日本鲭最适宜栖息地(HSI>0.8)空间和面积变化情况进行预测。结果显示,SST上升时,近海日本鲭适宜栖息地有明显的北移现象,7—12月最适栖息地面积增减比重为–73.1%～44.7%;SST下降时,有明显的南移现象,7—12月最适宜栖息地面积增减比重为–54.9%～123.4%。该研究结果可用于在SST上升等气候变化背景下,以及近海海况发生变化等情况下,对日本鲭栖息地和作业渔场时空分布进行预测。

The change of surface water temperature affects the habitat distribution of pelagic fishes.According to the chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)fishery-dependent data from July to December during 2003 to 2012 in the Chinese coastal waters,and sea surface water temperature(SST)from remote sensingthe suitable index(SI)from the fishing effort and the catch per unit effort(CPUE)based on SST were established by using the method of normal distribution.The halntat suitability index(HSI)were estimated by taking the average.The latitude distribution and area change of the most suitable habitat(HSI>0.8)was analysed when the monthly SST increased and declined respectively by 0.5℃,1℃and 2℃.Results showed that the coastal chub mackerel had an obvious southward shifting tendency when the SST increased,and the most suitable habitat area changed from–73.1%to 44.7%during July to December.There was also an obvious northward shifting tendency when the SST dropped and the most suitable habitat area changed from–54.9%to 123.4%during July to December.The area also had different developing trends.The research suggests that the findings of this article can be used to predict the coastal chub mackerel habitat and its fishing ground under El Nino or La Nina,as well as changes in offshore water in the future.