空间环境长期演化模型研究

Research of Space Environment's Long-term Evolution Model

伴随着人类航天活动,空间碎片的数量越来越多,对航天器的威胁日益凸显,对空间碎片环境的研究一方面在于提高空间监视能力,另一方面在于分析空间目标的运动特性,建立空间环境演化模型;分析国内外在空间环境长期演化模型方面的研究现状,以LEGEND模型和DAMAGE模型为例,对国外空间环境长期演化模型的机理进行研究,指出空间环境长期演化模型中的关键科学问题:空间目标碰撞解体特性、轨道长期预测和碰撞概率计算模型;阐述关键科学问题的研究现状,并分析了GEO区域的Kessler现象;展望长期演化模型的未来研究方向,举例分析针对特定区域、特定状况的空间环境演化问题;国内外对空间环境长期演化分析,得出结论:为了避免Kessler现象的发生,需进行空间碎片的清除工作。

Along with human being’s space activities, space debris is increasing, and the threat to spacecraft is becoming more and more prominent. The research on space debris environment is to improve the ability of space surveillance, and to analyze the motion characteristics of space objects and establish space environmental evolution model. Analyze the research status of space environment’s long-term evolution model at home and abroad. Taking LEGEND model and DAMAGE model as examples, study the mechanism of foreign space environment’s long-term evolution model, and put forward the key scientific problems in the long-term evolution model: space objects’ collision breakup characteristics, long-term orbit prediction and collision probability model. Explain the research status of key scientific issues and analyze the Kessler Syndrome in the GEO region. Forecast the future research direction of the long-term evolution model, and analyze the spatial environment evolution problem for specific regions and specific conditions. At home and abroad, the long-term evolution of the space environment is analyzed, and it is concluded that in order to avoid the occurrence of the Kessler Syndrome, space debris removal is required.