中国区域农业绿色全要素生产率分解及收敛性分析

Decomposition and Convergence of Green Total Factor Productivity in China's Regional Agriculture

选取1999—2015年全国31个省域农业投入、产出面板数据,运用Global Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数方法测算中国农业绿色全要素生产率增长与分解情况,并针对收敛性问题进行检验。结果表明:(1)中国农业绿色全要素生产率增长源于技术进步,规模效率降低了绿色全要素生产率的提高,纯技术效率无明显影响;(2)未考虑农业碳排放会高估全要素生产率水平,导致评价偏误;(3)考虑农业碳排放情况下,全要素生产率水平呈现东、中、西、东北部依次递减趋势;(4)全国及各区域无明显σ收敛特征,全国层面及东北地区存在绝对β收敛现象,全国及东、中、西、东北地区均存在显著条件β收敛,表明各省域朝着自身稳定状态发展,而省域间"追赶效应"不明显。据此认为农业要走绿色技术创新及区域协调发展道路。

By choosing agricultural input and output panel data from 31 provinces and municipalities from 1999 to 2015,the Global Malmquist-Luenberger Productivity Index(GML)method was used to measure the growth and decomposition of agricultural green total factor productivity(TFP)in China and to test its convergence.The results show:(1)China's agricultural green TFP growth is due to technological progress,scale efficiency reduces the increase in green TFP,pure technical efficiency has no obvious effect;(2)Failure to consider carbon emissions from agriculture will overestimate the level of TFP,leading to deviation in the evaluation;(3)Considering the carbon emissions from agriculture,the TFP levels show decreasing trend in the east,middle,west and northeast;(4)There are no obviousσconvergence characteristics in the whole China and regions,absoluteβconvergence exists at the national level and in the northeast,there are significant conditionalβconvergences across the country and in the east,middle,west and northeast regions,it shows that all provinces have developed toward their own stable state,while the"catch-up effect"between provinces is not obvious.Based on this,it is believed that agriculture should take the path of green technological innovation and regional coordinated development.