中国城镇居民储蓄率之谜的一个解释兼论对商业银行资产管理风险的影响

An Explanation For The Riddle Of China's Urban Household Saving Rate And Impacting On Commercial Banking Business

影响中国经济增长的因素很多,高储蓄率是主要因素之一。基于人口结构和不确定性分析高储蓄率之谜,并采用2000-2014年省级面板数据进行实证检验。结果表明:人口结构、不确定性与城镇居民储蓄率之间存在着显著的正相关关系;这一结果是稳健的。人均GDP增长率、城乡收入比、总投资率对储蓄率是正向影响,但实际利率、社会保障对城镇居民储蓄率反而起到显著的抑制作用。据此,建议进一步放开人口生育,深化金融改革。

There are many factors influencing China's economic growth,with a high savings rate as one of the main factors.Based on the enigma of high savings rate in demographic structure and uncertainty analysis,empirical test was conducted with provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014.The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between population structure,uncertainty and the saving rate of urban residents.The result is robust.Per capita GDP growth rate,urban-rural income ratio and total investment rate have a positive impact on the savings rate,but the real interest rate and social security have a significant inhibitory effect on the savings rate of urban residents.Accordingly,it is suggested to further liberalize population reproduction and deepen financial reform.