震后重建项目中基于灰色模型构建的多因素造价控制模型

Multi-factor Model Based on the Gray Model for the Cost Control of Post-earthquake Reconstruction Projects

在当前震后重建项目的多因素造价控制过程中,未考虑造价影响因素造成的偏差,导致控制精度较低,因此需对震后重建项目中基于灰色模型构建的多因素造价控制模型进行研究。从重建项目的造价影响因素入手,分析由于震后重建项目管理程序缺位造成的进度偏差,因为设计能力影响造成的质量偏差以及因建筑材料市场供求状况不稳定造成的价格偏差,计算各影响因素造成的偏差系数,求解得出更为精确的重建项目整体偏差结果。结合灰色模型构建造价控制约束函数,并进行求解,进而完成震后重建项目中多因素造价控制模型的构建。实验结果表明,所构建模型的精确度较高,且与实际值偏离程度小,可信度较高。可以对重建项目进行全方位的动态管理,降低工程成本。

The current method for the multi-factor cost control of post-earthquake reconstruction projects has low control accuracy because it ignores the deviation caused by the factors that affect project cost.Therefore,the multi-factor model based on the gray model for the cost control of post-earthquake reconstruction projects is necessary.In reference to the factors that affect the cost of reconstruction projects,we analyze the schedule deviation caused by the absence of management procedures for post-earthquake reconstruction projects,the quality deviation caused by the influence of design capability,and the price deviation caused by the instability of supply and demand in the construction materials market.In addition,we calculate the deviation coefficients caused by various factors and obtain results for the overall deviation of reconstruction projects with increased accuracy.The cost control constraint function is constructed and used in combination with the gray model,and the multi-factor cost control model of the post-earthquake reconstruction project is then established.Experimental results show that the model has high accuracy,low deviation from the actual value,and high credibility.The model can reduce project costs when used in the omnidirectional dynamic management of reconstruction projects.