索道项目风险评价研究

Research on risk assessment of cableway project

随着旅游和滑雪运动的不断发展,大运量脱挂索道需求快速增长。大运量脱挂索道工程,特别是带转角站的脱挂索道,不可避免地存在诸如项目工期长、技术难度大、设备复杂度高、安全稳定运行等一系列风险,这些将造成项目的经济效益下降,并带来安全隐患。依据A索道项目的 4个一级风险因素和20个二级风险因素,重点对项目进行了风险评价,主要依据项目风险识别成果,构建"A索道项目"风险评价指标体系,依据指标体系的特点,选用合适的项目风险评价模型。运用层次分析法,创建了以A索道工程为对象的风险评价模型。

With the continuous development of tourism and skiing,the demand for large-capacity detachable cableway has increased rapidly.A series of risks,such as long construction period,high technical difficulty,high equipment complexity,safe and stable operation and so on,inevitably exist in the large-capacity detachable cableway project,especially the cableway with corner stations,and these aspects will reduce the economic benefits of the project and bring about potential safety hazards.According to the 4 first-class risk factors and 20 second-class risk factors of the A cableway project,and attention is paid on the carried out risk evaluation of the project.Project results are mainly identified by risks.The evaluation index system of the A cableway project is established and the appropriate project risk evaluation model is selected according to the characteristics of the index system.The risk evaluation model with the A cableway project as subject is established by using analytic hierarchy process.