居民部门杠杆率影响因素及调控路径探析

Research on the influencing Factors of Leverage Rate of Resident sector and its Regulation Path

本文以研究我国居民部门杠杆率为对象,在泰勒规则的基础上构建宏观政策--居民杠杆率拓展模型,考察货币政策、财政政策、产业政策等对其的影响程度。研究表明:利率对居民杠杆率的发展变化没有直接影响或有较小的间接影响;土地财政依赖对居民杠杆率有正向影响,土地财政依赖越高,居民杠杆率上升越快;加大房地产开发投资、抑制炒房属性的住宅商品房销售可以起到降低居民杠杆率的作用。最后,根据结论提出有效调控居民杠杆率的若干政策性建议。

This paper studies the leverage ratio of residential sectors in China,and constructs a macro-policy-resident leverage expansion model on the basis of Taylor's rule to examine the impact of monetary policy,fiscal policy and industrial policy on it.The research shows that interest rate has no direct or indirect impact on the development of residents'leverage ratio;land financial dependence has a positive impact on residents'leverage ratio;the higher the land financial dependence is,the faster the residents'leverage ratio rises;increasing investment in real estate development and restraining the sale of residential commercial housing with speculative property can play a role in reducing residents'leverage ratio.Finally,according to the conclusion,some policy suggestions are put forward to effectively control the residents'leverage ratio.