新疆信贷投放对经济增长的门限效应研究

Research on the Threshold Effect between Credit Supply and Economic Growth in Xinjiang

本文基于新疆15个地州市的面板数据,以信贷投放效率为门限变量,通过构建面板数据门限模型,考察新疆信贷投放与经济增长之间存在的非线性门限效应。研究发现:(1)在不同的信贷投放效率水平下,新疆的信贷投放对经济增长的作用并非简单的线性正相关,而是呈现出促进和抑制的差异,即存在门限效应。(2)在北疆地区,大于门限值的样本点所占比例较多,为减小区域差距,促进经济收敛,应大力提升中南疆的金融发展水平。相对于经济而言,金融发展向上或者向下的过度偏离都抑制了经济的增长,优化信贷结构,发挥信贷结构的引导作用对于经济增长十分重要。

Based on the panel data of 15 prefectures in Xinjiang,this paper uses the panel data threshold model to investigate the nonlinear threshold effect between credit supply and economic growth in Xinjiang.The study finds that:(1)Under different levels of credit supply efficiency,the effect of credit supply in Xinjiang is not a simple linear positive correlation,but a discrepant situation with promotion and inhibition,that is,there is a threshold effect.(2)In northern Xinjiang,the sample points which larger than the threshold value account for a large proportion.In order to reduce the regional gap and promote economic convergence,the financial development level of Central and Southern Xinjiang should be vigorously developed.Compared with the economy,the excessive deviation of financial development has restrained the growth of the economy.Thus,it is very important to optimize the credit structure and take advantage of it to promote economic growth.