陕西经常项目差额变动趋势、成因、影响及对策建议

Trends, Causes, Impacts and Countermeasures of the Change of Current Accounts in Shaanxi Province

近年来,我国经常项目顺差呈现出连年下降的态势,已经从2015年的3042亿美元逐年降至2017年的1649亿美元,降幅高达45.79%,经常项目顺差占GDP的比重也由10%下降到2%。陕西省经常项目差额与全国差额状态基本保持一致。本文通过系统梳理陕西省近十年来经常项目涉外收支及结售汇数据变动情况,针对其发展规律,运用定性和定量相结合的方法分析变动成因,在中美贸易摩擦的大背景下,找准陕西省经常项目外汇业务发展中存在的区域性、结构性问题,并提出政策建议。

In recent years,China's current account surplus has shown a downward trend year after year.It has dropped from 304.2 billion US dollars in 2015 to 164.9 billion US dollars in 2017,a drop of 45.79%.The proportion of current account surplus to GDP has also dropped from 10% to 2%.The current account balance in Shaanxi Province is basically consistent with the national balance.This paper systematically sorts out the changes in foreign-related income and expenditure and foreign exchange settlement and sales data of Shaanxi Province in the past ten years,and identifies regional and structural problems in the development of foreign exchange business of the current account of Shaanxi Province,proposes policy recommendations,with qualitative and quantitative methods under the background of Sino-US trade friction.