对区域金融风险预警的研究——基于欠发达地区地市级视角

Based on the Perspective of the City Level in Underdeveloped Regions——A Research on Regional Financial Risk Early Warning

本文选取了一系列指标并运用层次分析模型构建了一套适应本地区经济金融发展实际的金融风险预警指标体系。通过实证分析,探寻和测度当地金融风险运行的基本趋势与特点,并运用二次指数平滑法对区域金融风险进行了早期预测。本文针对出现和潜在的风险点以及预警体系的进一步完善提出了相关建议。

Maintaining financial security is a strategic and fundamental issue in the overall development of China's economic and social development.In order to grasp the financial security status and financial risks of a region,this paper takes the NingXia ZhongWei City in the underdeveloped area as an empirical case,selects a series of indicators and uses the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to build a set of financial risk warning indicator system which is suitable for the actual economic and financial development of the region.Through empirical analysis,this paper explores and measures the basic trends and characteristics of local financial risk operation,and uses the second exponential smoothing method to make early predictions of regional financial risks.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for the emergence and potential risks and further improvement of the early warning system.