鲁南地区近40年气温变化趋势分析与农业应对措施

Analysis of Temperature Changing Trend in Lunan Area for Recent 40 Years and Agricultural Measures

利用枣庄市5个气象站1977—2016年气温观测数据,对5个站点的气温进行平均;采用小波分析法和线性拟合法分析了鲁南地区近40年的逐年平均气温、季平均气温、年高温(≥35℃)日数和积温的变化特征。结果表明:1977—2016年枣庄地区年平均气温、四季平均气温和积温均呈现增温趋势,平均增温速率有所不同,其中春季的增温最为明显,倾向率为0.64℃/10a;1977—2016年每年高温日数表现出波动上升的趋势,高温日数变化的倾向率为1.70d/10a,积温变化的倾向率为90℃·d/10a。近40年来枣庄地区气温变化过程具有显著的阶段性,而不是单调递增。最后对发展高效农业的应对措施进行了分析并给出了建议。

The temperature observation data of five weather stations in Zaozhuang City from 1977 to 2016 is employed in this paper. Firstly the temperature data of five stations has been averaged, and the change characteristics of the annual average temperature, seasonal average temperature and annual high temperature days(≥35 °C) in southern area of Shandong Province in recent 40 year shave been analyzed with wavelet analysis method and linear fitting method. The results show that from 1977 to 2016, the annual average temperature, seasonal average temperature and accumulated temperature in southern area of Shandong Province allpresent increase trends with different average temperature rising rates. The temperature rising in spring is the most obvious with trend rate of 0.64/10a. The annual high temperature days from 1977 to 2016 experienced a fluctuantly rise with trend rate of 1.70d/10a. In the past 40 years, there are many significantly different stagesoftemperature change in Zaozhuang, rather than monotone increasing. Finally, response measures for the development of high-efficiency agriculture have been analyzed.