乌鲁木齐市牛肉市场价格风险分析

Risk Analysis on Beef Market Price in Urumqi

牛肉市场价格风险在一定程度上影响了畜产品市场的结构与稳定性。本文以乌鲁木齐市2015-2017年间牛肉市场价格为面板数据,分析了3年间乌鲁木齐市牛肉市场价格波动现状、波动率及其波动幅度变化率。并通过构建灰色关联度模型,测算出在牛肉市场价格升高时,鸡肉会与牛肉产生较强的替代效应。此外,分析出影响牛肉价格波动的因素还包括季节因素和人们需求结构的变化。

As the structure and stability of livestock market are affected by the risk of beef market price to a certain extent,the paper analyzes the fluctuation status and rate and the change rate of fluctuation range of beef market price in Urumqi in the past 3 years,considering the beef market price during 2015-2017 in Urumqi as the panel data,and calculates that there would be a strong replacement effect occurred between chicken and beef when the beef price is increased through establishing grey correlation model.Further,the paper analyzes the factors that would affect beef price include season and changes of people’s demand.