城市天然气管网火灾定量风险分析系统研究与实现

Design and Implementation of Quantitative Risk Analysis System for Urban Natural Gas Pipelines

随着城市天然气管网大面积铺设和投入使用,管线的安全风险问题日益突出。相关天然气泄漏、火灾、爆炸等事故对民众财产和人身安全产生了严重威胁。针对这一问题,基于GIS技术提出了一套燃气管网定量风险分析模型,结合燃气泄漏引发建筑物火灾的特殊背景下,提出适用的城市火灾蔓延模型,借助C#编程与ArcGIS Engine平台,开发一套城市天然气管网火灾定量风险分析系统。试验结果表明,本文系统有效地预测事故可能发生区域以及事故影响区域,并对发生火灾概率较大的区域实现蔓延模拟,从而预先对存在事故隐患的区域进行重点风险评价、安全教育乃至整个城市的二次规划和重建,有效抵御事故的发生,防患于未然。

With the increasing use and complexity of urban natural gas pipelines, the increase in safety risks such as leaks, fires, and explosins has had a serious impact on people’s property and personal safety. To solve this problem, this paper proposed a set of models for quantitative risk analysis on urban gas pipelines, and designed a suitable fire-spread model for the building fire caused by gas leakage. A quantitative risks analysis system was developed using Visual C# and ArcGIS Engine. Results of simulation experiments indicated that this system could effectively predict the sites of accidents and evaluate the risks. Safety education for people in places under high risk of fire could be carried out and city may need to be redesigned and reconstructed to avoid fire accidents caused by urban nature gas pipelines.